Work Sample 2
Market Forecasting in Fintech – predicting digital wallet activity with limited historical data via probabilistic modeling
The Challenge
A research and advisory firm sought to predict the future of mobile wallet usage in the US in 2015, but with digital wallets just emerging, historical data were minimal, so the forecast had to be built from sparse signals and probabilistic assumptions.
The Outcome
Through simulation modeling anchored in early payment data and market conditions, the forecast achieved remarkable accuracy. By 2024, published figures confirmed the model’s 2020 projections were within 2% of actual transaction volumes.
Case Study - Digital Wallet Market Forecast
Case Study - Digital Wallet Market Forecast - Deliverable Detail 1
Case Study - Digital Wallet Market Forecast - Deliverable Detail 2
More Examples of Forecasting & Prediction Models
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